What's the Rush?

Why Is The GOP Establishment So Desparate To End This Race?

In the past week we have witnessed an attempt by the media and the GOP Establishment to all but declare Romney the nominee. First you have the Romney campaign laughing at Rick Santorum's delegate math and arrogantly stating that Romney will be the nominee and the others should just drop out "so we can unite the party for the fall campaign". Then you have all the GOP media doing the same. Now just in the past few days we have had Jeb Bush, his father George HW Bush, Jim DeMint,  and yesterday Marco Rubio who said "Romney provided the starkest contrast to Obama" that's a joke because he does not provide any contrast. And now just today Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin just endorsed Romney saying of Romney that ""I am convinced that Mitt Romney has the skills, the tenacity, the principles,  the courage and the integrity to do what it takes to get America back on track," and "I believe he is the right person for the job." This becoming a chorus, the establishment has been piling on the endorsements this week in an attempt to cram Romney down our throats. They say that it is time for the race to end and to unite behind Romney. Despite the fact that half the states haven't had their vote yet. What's the Rush?  Last week at this time they were on this kick that conservatives were starting get behind Romney following his win in the very blue state of Illinois, Obama's home turf. They said that people were turned off by so called Santorum gaffe's and that it was pretty much over. What happened? Why the sudden need for the race to end immediately? Rick Santorum won Louisiana that's what happened. And not as close as experts predicted either but by a 23 point margin over Romney who only won one county in the entire state and that is the one with New Orleans. Rick smashed Romney in every category but one and that was the over $200k crowd. Newt "mr south" suffered his biggest thrashing on his so called turf hauling in only 16%. This result has the establishment elites in a fit because their narrative about conservatives getting behind Romney had just got thrown back in their face and rejected in Louisiana and it highlighted Romney's weaknesses again. So now we have this train of endorsements this week to bring back the air of inevitability to intimidate Rick Santorum out of this race. Its not working. All people like Rubio and DeMint have done is anger those that once believed them heroes of the conservative cause. Also this week we saw one campaign pretty much give up even trying to win but not officially calling it quits. I am talking about of course Newt Gingrich who let got one third of his campaign staff and replaced his manager, all of the embedded media have stopped following him as he has officially stopped actually campaigning. Instead he is devoting all resources to call delegates to pick him in August. He has even started charging $50 for a picture with him. Newt has clearly sunken to a new low. I implore all Newt people to PLEASE stop enabling  this man who clearly doesn't have beating Romney before the convention in his agenda. I should add that according to GOP rules that anyone having not received a plurality of the vote in at least 5 states can't be on the ballot meaning Newt and Ron Paul are out of luck, only Rick Santorum and Romney will be on the 1st ballot, we don't want a brokered convention either. As I have explained before a brokered convention does not end well for conservatives in 1976 Reagan took it to the convention with Ford and lost. Ford went onto lose to Jimmy Carter in the General election. The reason the establishment is pushing the narrative that our only choices are Romney or a brokered convention is because of several reasons. First it is a scare tactic to get people behind Romney rather than risk losing to Obama with a brokered convention. Second it builds the notion that Romney is inevitable and makes it seem as though Rick doesn't have a shot thus suppressing the vote. Third it has even conservatives pushing for it in hopes they can get someone like West or Palin in as the nominee. Fourth it allows stagnant Newt to stay in and still garner enough votes to keep Rick from ever catching Romney by dividing the vote. And finally it distracts us and gives us false hope for August when there isn't. Ron Paul's people have been planning for such an eventuality for years and as evidenced in Missouri they are working in conjunction with Romney. If this goes to the convention an establishment candidate will be chosen. The recent news that Newt had a secret meeting with Romney before Louisiana should have everybody wondering. Since then as mentioned above Newt has pretty much given up actually campaigning and is solely focused on August, but he is still technically in the race and will still take votes away from the other conservative. Newt says that no deal was made for him to get out. And I actually have to agree with that because I think the deal was for him to stay in the race as long as possible to keep Rick from catching him. There are only three possibilities at this point and they are as follows:

1. Newt stays in the race till the end takes enough votes to keep Rick from winning states like Wisconsin, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, and New York in April. It will also keep Rick from getting over 50% in Pennsylvania a state Rick should win. In May with states like North Carolina, Nebraska, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Texas likely going to Rick. Newt's presence will once again keep Rick from getting over 50% this is important because if Rick can get over that mark he can claim the vast majority of the delegates in those states if not then Mitt Romney will be able to claim large enough chunks of the delegates to keep his lead from ever shrinking. Romney will most likely win DC, Rhode Island, and Oregon but Newt will cost Rick the chance to win Indiana and West Virgininia.  Newt is not likely going to gain any significant amount of delegates going forward so his presence is puzzling. Finally Newt costs Rick any shot at beating Romney in California, New Mexico, Montana or New Jersey in June and from getting over the 50% threshold in South Dakota. The reality is with Newt in the race there is a strong possibility Romney could clinch 1144 by Utah on June 26th.

2. Newt remains in the race and none of the candidates surpasses the 1144 mark but Romney falls less than 200 shy and is the closest. We go to the convention and Romney brokers a deal with either Newt or Ron Paul or both and becomes the nominee on the 2nd or 3rd ballot.

3.  Whether Newt remains in the race or not he becomes irrelevant Rick wins Wisconsin and possibly Maryland then goes onto win 4 of 5 states on April 24th with Romney only winning Rhode Island. Then Rick goes onto have a HUGE month in May only losing Oregon to Romney. Then finally manages to pull off upset wins on June 5th and wins the nomination outright as the delegate count adjusts through the convention process. This scenario would be much easier to achieve if Newt would drop out and get behind Rick Santorum.

It has become clear that the establishment is afraid to let this primary race to go on because the longer that it goes on the more chance there is for their guy to lose. This nonsense that we need to wrap this up now to come together to beat Obama in the fall is pure garbage. In 2008 we basically wrapped up our nomination process in February following Super Tuesday and offically ended in late March while the Democrats primary went on till June and appeared poised to go their convention only it didn't. Who won the early finishers or the late finisher? Well since we are looking to unseat Obama I think the answer is obvious. We need the primary to continue until someone reaches 1144 or all the states have voted whichever happens first. I implore all conservatives to unite behind Rick Santorum to halt the Romney express.

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